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Issued: 1200hrs Sunday 30th September 2006
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling
Unsettled November and December...Mild Christmas?
It has been a few weeks since our winter forecast was issued. We have now refined the forecast, although still remain low in confidence. Overall, we suspect the forecast pattern will be satisfactory. However, there is a risk that we may have emphasised the unsettled nature of the conditions too greatly, and in fact, it will be more settled. A further update will be issued at the end of October.
November
01 - 10
Rather mixed with string winds and rain across northern Britain, southern areas mainly dry at first, showers or longer spells of rain everywhere.
10-18
Remaining unsettled and turning colder, especially over northern areas where wintry precipitation can be expected over higher ground.
19-24
Pressure building in mid-Atlantic, a northerly flow developing through all areas, rather cold with wintry showers over the north, further south cold with showers or longer spells of rain. Turning less cold mid-week as winds swing northwesterly, remaining unsettled throughout.
25 - 31 Cool and unsettled showers continuing for a time, although drier later as pressure builds to the west. Becoming colder once more, especially overnight with frost and fog.
December
01 - 13
High pressure may develop as a blocking pattern to the east?
On current form, a south to southeast flow is expected; dry and cool to the east with flow off the Continent, less cold to the west with showers and generally cloudy.
14 - 22
High pressure dominating across southern areas, a stronger southwesterly flow developing across the north and northwest for a time. High pressure then re-asserting to the east to form another blocking pattern.
23-28
High pressure declining to allow a mild southwest flow to push through all areas with rain and strong winds, showers following.
29-31 Turning colder with wintry showers over the north, brighter to the south with scattered showers.
Simon Keeling