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Updated Sunday 1st October 2006. Valid Tuesday 8th October to Friday 3rd November 2006
Changeable yet rather warm
The last few weeks have seen some weakening of our confidence in our extended forecast pattern, especially in the short term where low pressure seems to be likely to take centre stage.
However in the medium to longer term, confidence is still strong enough to expect that high pressure will be once again be dominating the pattern perhaps through to the very end of October across southern areas of the UK, where it is expected to be settled, fine and mild to perhaps warm at times.
Western and especially northern districts of the UK will be rather more changeable with outbreaks of rain and quite windy at times.
08/10 - 14/10
With high pressure to the east and low pressure centred over, or to the west of the UK, a mild southerly to southeasterly flow is expected to be established over the whole of the country. The current pattern suggests that low pressure will be close to the UK, therefore showers or longer spells of rain can be expected almost anywhere, although more especially through western areas where there will be a good deal of cloud at times. Eastern areas of the UK will see more in the way of any drier and sunnier spells on offer, any showers generally well-scattered. All areas mild, breezy through western and southwestern areas. Through the middle period, low pressure although slow moving close to the UK, should gradually fill, remaining showers becoming more scattered with sunny spells developing across all areas.
15/10 - 21/10
High pressure is expected to build strongly across southern Britain, winds falling light and variable, sunny and fine during the day, mist and fog developing overnight with ground frost across central areas. A brisk southwest to westerly flow across northern and northwestern Britain will keep these areas mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times; low pressure expected to move away from these northern areas during mid-week. High pressure is the expected to build to the east a southerly flow establishing across all areas, very mild through all areas.
22/10 - 28/10
High pressure is expected to dominate across southern, central and eastern areas through the period. Western and northwestern districts are likely to become rather more cloudy as a southwesterly flow develops, rain or showers expected from mid-week and rather breezy later.
29/10 - 03/11
A west to southwesterly flow across all areas, outbreaks of rain and rather windy, especially across northern Britain