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Updated Sunday 8th October 2006. Valid Saturday 14th October to Wednesday 8th November 2006
Changeable, but some brighter periods, mild
Although there has been some variability in the short term forecast patterns, the over-riding indications have been and still are for a 'blocking' build of pressure to the east of the UK through the middle of October.
On current trends, confidence is still moderate that a 'blocking scenario' will develop through the medium term, thereafter conditions are expected to become more 'mobile and zonal', perhaps quite disturbed and colder late in October?
November is likely to begin rather unsettled and cool with winds generally still from a westerly point, although by the end of the forecast period conditions should become more settled for a time.
14/10 - 20/10
High pressure continuing to be firmly established to the east of the UK, low pressure held back to the west. A mild to very mild south to southeasterly flow established across all areas. Dry and fine, sunny spells with variable cloud amounts through mush of England and Wales. Scattered showers to the west and northwest. Cool overnight with mist and fog patches, localised ground frost possible inland. Later in the week high pressure will decline allowing showers and outbreaks of rain to push further east through central areas, strengthening southerly breeze, swinging southwest then west. Turning cooler everywhere.
21/10 - 27/10
Dry at first in the east and southeast, rain and showers in the west extending across all areas. General westerly flow establishing across all areas. Higher pressure across southern England with scattered showers and sunny spells. Cloudier across northern areas of England, Wales and Scotland with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds, feeling cool.
28/10 - 03/11
Possibility of quite a disturbed and 'active' few days with low pressure in control. Strong winds and outbreaks of possibly heavy rain moving through all areas. Turning brighter and colder, blustery showers, possibly wintry over the mountains of Scotland winds turning northerly for a time. Western areas turning brighter and drier as pressure builds to the west of Ireland. Winds swinging back into a milder westerly everywhere through mid-week. Drier to the south once more, showers to the north and west
04/11 - 08/11
Little change through the weekend, although indications are that pressure will rise from the southwest, and ridge of high pressure extending into the UK.