Updated Sunday 15th October 2006. Valid Saturday 21st October to Friday 15th November 2006
Cold, wintry showers and strong winds
Once again it appears that confidence in our own methods has been eroded by taking too much notice of the global model trends. If previous patterns had been adhered to our forecasted pressure build to the west and colder plunge from the north/northeast would probably have been vindicated this week? High pressure is expected to be maintained to the west of the UK for some considerable time, much of our weather originating from the northwest to north, so generally on the 'cool side'.
Spells of unsettled wet and windy weather will alternate with some drier and brighter interludes with associated overnight frost and fog problems.
Very little change is expected through the beginning of November with high pressure just to the west of Ireland, the cool rather mixed conditions likely to be maintained.
21/10 - 27/10
Low pressure over or close to the east of the UK and high the west/ northwest, winds from a cool north to northeasterly direction, showers or longer spells of rain. Cold enough for sleet or snow over the high ground and mountains of Scotland, feeling raw everywhere in a strong breeze. Although winds are expected to die down through the week, little change in the pressure pattern is forecast, a cool northerly predominating. With lighter winds and clearing skies, overnight frost and fog can be expected, slow to clear through the day in places, cool where it persists, some sunny spells where it does disperse. Showers continuing along eastern and northeastern coastal areas with a cool, raw breeze, drier to the west.
28/10 - 03/11
High pressure is expected to slip slowly south close to the west of the UK, winds falling light and variable as an anticyclone or ridge builds through the country. Overnight mist, fog and frost becoming widespread, persisting through the day in some areas, so once again rather cold in these areas, bright or sunny spells where it clears. Through the middle of the week England and Wales are likely to remain under the influence of a ridge of high pressure whilst over Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern areas of England an increasing west to southwesterly breeze will bring cloudy weather with showers or longer spells of rain at times. With high pressure maintained to the west winds are once again expected to swing to the north, showers moving south through all areas late in the week.
04/11 - 10/11
Through the weekend and beginning of the week high pressure will remain in control to the west, many areas fine and dry. However, indications are that it may well turn much more unsettled and remain rather on the cold side as low pressure moves in from the northwest, high pressure relocating to mid-Atlantic. Showers or longer spells of rain everywhere, rather windy and cool generally. Once again later in the week, high pressure will begin to build back to the west, although low pressure will be slow moving to the east, winds still from the northwest, north or northeast.
11/10 - 15/11
High pressure is expected to ridge across southern areas of England and Wales, a less cool westerly flow establishing across the north of the UK, some drier weather to the south with overnight mist and fog, showers or rain for Scotland and Northern Ireland.