Updated Monday 30th October 2006. Valid Monday 30th October to Friday 29th November 2006
Uncertain, but more likely to be high pressure in control
There is still some considerable variability in the forecast patterns at the moment and it is difficult to obtain a 'handle' on what may actually be happening?
There are tentative indications that we shall see a return of anticyclonic influence during the opening week of November and the possibility then of high pressure persisting over the near Continent. Should such a scenario develop then it may be the case that after an initially cool spell, we may see a return of a feed from the south or southeast, so not overly cold in the immediate outlook. However, should the Continental High be a little further to the east the prospects may be rather more complex with a mixed and unsettled spell of weather with low pressure rather slow moving close to or over the UK? Without any firm confidence in the mid-term forecast, the outlook for the extended period is uncertain.
04/11 - 10/11
High pressure will continue to hold sway to the east of the UK, although some erosion is expected to the west or northwest where low pressure will be close by. Rather breezy through northwestern areas of the UK with outbreaks of rain or showers, drier to the east and northeast where some sunny spells are likely. Low pressure is expected to remain close to west or northwest of the UK slowly edging east across central Britain, showers are expected to become widespread. Low pressure should slip away southeastward, pressure rising over the northern half of the UK, so becoming drier with sunny spells, overnight fog and frost. Showers continuing across England and Wales for a time, slowly dying away from the north.
11/11 - 17/11
Drier for a time everywhere with sunny spells and overnight fog and frost, a transient ridge of high pressure controlling the pattern. Outbreaks of rain are expected to approach from the north and extend southward through all areas by mid-week. Winds swinging into the northwest for a time, showers across western Britain, drier to the south and east. Pressure building across southern England, a westerly flow establishing across Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England with some showery outbreaks of rain, mainly dry to the south.
18/11 - 24/11
A rather unsettled prospect for all areas, low pressure moving across northern Scotland with strong winds and outbreaks of heavy rain. Rain pushing south through England and Wales, an increasing and cold northerly breeze bringing wintry showers to northern hills and mountains. Pressure building to the west, becoming drier with sunny spells, winds swinging around to a northeasterly direction through the latter stages of the week, then easterly over England and Wales as high prerssure settles to the northwest or north.
25/11 - 29/11
The pattern is expected to be dominated by high pressure to the west or northwest, a feed of cool air across all areas, perhaps turning unsettled as high pressure pulls back to mid-Atlantic.