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Issued: 1000hrs Friday 6th October 2006
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling
Noticeably warmer for most
I'm looking at the charts this morning and getting the impression that the weather really is not looking too bad. There's low pressure west of the British isles and high pressure to the east with the resultant flow being from the southeast. Now, that is good news for us, because it means it will be warm, however as rain bands move in from the west, colder Atlantic air mixes with warmer tropical air and the outcome of that is heavy rain. The question is deciding where and when that heavy rain will occur and how far east it will travel.
For the weather for the next few days click here
Tuesday 10/10/06
High pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, with a warm southeasterly flow blowing through the British Isles. Most areas will be dry with some good spells of sunshine, although increasing cloud in the west is likely to bring rain to western England, Wales and western Scotland. For Ireland the day is likely to be wet. Highs near 16 or 178C in the west, closer to 23C in the sunnier parts of southeast England.
Wednesday 11/10/06
Heavy periods of thundery rain affecting much of Ireland, western Wales, Scotland and the west of England; there is a risk of some flooding. Through central and eastern parts of England the day will be drier with some sunny spells and it is going to be feeling very warm. Temperatures at 22C in the southeast, 17C in the west.
Thursday 12/10/06
Warm again, but a fairly damp start through much of southern and central parts of England and Wales. Further drizzly bits of rain for the west of Scotland. Either side of the rain band the day should be bright with sunny spells. It is going to be warm with temperatures at 21C in eastern England, cooler to the west at 15C in Ireland.
Friday 13/10/06/10/06
There are hints of another area of heavier rain crossing Ireland and moving into Wales, western England and western Scotland. However, how far east the rain gets will be critical. There is a chance of some flooding in the areas where the rain band is brought to a halt, and at the moment I suspect that central southern England, the Midlands, Wales and parts of northern England are most likely to see this. However, I will keep you up-to-date. Highs around 15 to 19C.
Saturday 14/10/06
Low confidence in the forecast, but I suspect that an area of rain will be pushing back into Ireland and western Scotland, possibly with the winds picking up too. For much of the rest of England and Wales it should be drier and warmer with sunny spells. Tops near 20C in eastern England, 15C in the west.