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Issued: 2245hrs Friday 24th November 2006
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling
Flooding and strong winds tonight
Well, what a day this has been. Monitoring the progress of the storm that is hitting the UK and Ireland tonight has certainly left me in a bit of a daze. Still, the latest runs of the various atmospheric models are now available, and combining these with my thoughts, here is my latest forecast.
It seems that the low pressure is going to be passing through Wales to be northeast of Blackpool by 3am. By 6am it's leaving the coast of northeast Ehgland, close to Scotch Corner.
Weather wise the strongest winds will be in the southeast and East Anglia with gusts to 50 or 60mph here, perhaps 70mph on southern coasts. The winds will pick up through much of the rest of the country during the course of Saturday.
Flooding could be a problem with a swathe of heavy rain passing through southwest England, Wales, the Midlands and into northern England. Totals by 9am could exceed 25mm with more to come through the northeast.
Whatever the weather, keep the sun shining.
Simon
Issued: 1630 Friday 24th November 2006
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling
Storms and rain Friday night and Saturday morning
It's been a very hectic day at the Weatheronline Weather Centre as various forecast models argued over the track of tonights low pressure area.
As I type this the midday run of the models is coming in and it now seems that the low will be tracking through western Wales this evening, and towards the far north of England and southern Scotland by 6am Saturday morning.
This pulls the strongest winds through central, southern and eastern England. Gusts to 30-40mph quuite widespread this evening, but then as the depression deepens overnight an area east of a line from about Portland Bill to The Was sees a significant increase in speeds. It is in this zone that we could see gusts to 60 or evening 70mph (although this tending to be on the coasts).
These winds continue through Saturday morning, easing slightly, but at the same time the winds then increase through wales and western England once again with gusts to 40 or 50mph in the afternoon.
For western areas rain seems to be the problem. With sodden ground and a heavy spell of rain running up Wales, the western Midlands and northwest England, we could see over an inch of rain in places by the middle of Saturday. Flooding is likely in these areas.
I'll try and update this forecast again around 11pm this evening.
Whatever the weather, keep the sun shining!
Simon