BANGKOK, May 8, 2008 (AFP) - Foreign navy vessels and convoys are ready to rush life-saving aid into Myanmar, but its paranoid junta is fearful that an international relief effort could threaten its grip on power, analysts say. France and the United States both have ships ready to deliver supplies after the devastating cyclone, while the UN refugee agency has 22 tonnes of aid poised on the Myanmar border, waiting for the green light from the authorities. "They don't like the international assistance because they want the people to look at them as their saviours, not the foreign agencies," said Win Min, a Myanmar expert based in Thailand with Chiang Mai University. "But the situation is too bad and they can't cope with it. They have no other option." Myanmar's reclusive generals have retained control of the country for 45 years by shutting out the outside world and dismissing international criticism as the work of "colonialists" trying to destroy their nation.
But as the military-run country struggles with a humanitarian crisis after the cyclone killed tens of thousands of people, they are having to compromise with the international community -- albeit on their own terms. The military junta has promised emergency foreign aid workers will be allowed in, but has yet to actually issue any visas. "They are showing they are still in control," said Win Min. Zarni, a Myanmar academic at Oxford University who goes by only one name, said that it was almost unthinkable that the generals would allow American warships into their waters. "The regime is understandably concerned about the hidden political agendas and motives for regime change -- perceived or real -- of aid agencies and their western governmental allies, most specifically the USA," he said. Zarni said the West's insistence on democracy in Myanmar and aggressive sanctions had sent the junta into the arms of more forgiving neighbours. "The ultimate result is a deeply paranoid regime leadership that views no positive gains from interacting with the West," he said.
Myanmar has been run by the military since 1962, and has become increasingly isolated from the Western world. In a sign of junta head Than Shwe's desire to rule in total secrecy and isolation, in 2006 he moved his government to a new capital Naypyidaw, a city built from scratch in the desolate scrubs of central Myanmar. When the military crushed protests last year killing at least 31 people, international outcry was swift, but the junta appeared unfazed. In a post-crackdown visit to the country, United Nations envoy for Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari suggested sending international observers to a referendum due Saturday on the much-derided new constitution. The response was blunt and clear: Myanmar would not allow outsiders to interfere with its sovereignty. At the same time, the country has cultivated relations with China, Thailand, India and Russia, all of whom appear willing to look the other way as they compete for Myanmar's vast natural resources. Despite the life-threatening delays in getting foreign aid to Myanmar, analysts said that the limited presence of foreign aid agencies on the ground was a significant shift. "It does strike me as possible that this could be a game changer," said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar analyst at Macquarie University in Australia. "Maybe this is a face-saving opportunity for the regime to begin to loosen up, because they have crossed a Rubicon by allowing aid agencies in."
But if the door is indeed opening, it is only by a crack. Foreign journalists still face a tortuous process to get into Myanmar, and have been entering on tourist visas after the September crackdown, when the junta stopped approving most media visas. One BBC journalist was ejected from the country on Monday. "Journalists from news agencies in Western countries illegally entered the country very often and made fabricated news with the help of anti-government groups," state newspaper the New Light of Myanmar said Wednesday in its typical defiant manner.
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