Issued: 1900hrs Sunday 11th September 2011
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling
Latest guidance brings stronger winds to much of the UK
As a forecaster, the latest model guidance is causing concern. The low which is ex-Hurricane Katia seems to playing games with us, and I'll try my best to explain how I see things developing below. Sunday night: ex-Katia low passes northwest of Ireland to be west of Scotland by early hours of Monday morning. Winds strengthen over Wales and the southern half of England with a zone of 50mph+ gusts running ahead of the cold front through the early hours. At the same time severe gales move into west and north Ireland and west Scotland, gusts over 70mph here.
Monday morning: The low drifts slowly into the western Isles, probably around Benbecula area by midday. Strongest winds in belt south of the low; 90mph gusts over Ireland, southern and western Scotland. 50mph gusts rest of England. Expect damage to trees and builds Scotland, tree damage to south.
Monday afternoon: The low crosses northern Scotland. Strongest winds stay to the south. central & southern Scotland, plus now northern England seeing strongest winds. 90mph gusts still possible. Damage to trees and buildings is possible too. Winds over far south of England ease to 30mph gusts. Winds easing over Ireland too.
Monday evening/night: Low stays north of Scotland but becomes complex. Gusts of 70mph in southern and central Scotland, possibly far north of England at first. Winds elsewhere too, although still easing in far south of England and Ireland.
So act sensibly, be aware of the dangers and if you can, enjoy nature's fury! I'll bring you a further update later.
Have a great day.
Simon
me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk