An "above average" hurricane season is on the horizon for the Atlantic region, with up to seven hurricanes expected. The discussion has been published by Dr William M. Gray and colleagues of the Colorado State University (CSU).

Dr Gray expects a total of 13 named tropical storms with seven developing into hurrican stage. Three of these might dvelop into mayor hurricanes of category three, four or five. The Atlantic basin hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30.

In a normal hurricane season, typically eight to 11 tropical storms will pelt the Atlantic region, with an average of six reaching hurricane strength and sustaining winds greater than 118 kph (74 mph). A major hurricane, of which two or three are expected, packs winds of up to 177 kph (110 mph).

Neutral to slightly warm El Nino conditions and the relatively warm sea surface temperatures in the North and tropical Atlantic that have been prevalent in most years since 1995 will continue. Thus, the CSU seasonal hurricane outlook expects that the hurricane season of 2004 will follow this recent upswing in hurricane activity. This is supported by an extremely long hurricane season in 2003.

Past 2003 season developed the earliest named tropical storm - Ana - since historic records began and two late-season December storms for the first time in 118 years. Three hurricanes were major and Isabel reached category 5.