A below average Atlantic basin hurricane season is now envisioned for 2002. Global conditions have steadily become less favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity

Dr. William Gray and his colleagues at Colorado State University are now predicting a below average hurricane season with just nine storms developing by the end of November. Last May the forecasters had called for eleven Atlantic storms, four which would become hurricanes. The long-term average is at about six. Gray's team cites cool sea surface temperatures, strong easterly trade winds and high sea surface pressures as primary reasons for the reduction in predicted storms.

In association with these factors, the weak El Nino event which was expected in earlier forecasts is now a moderate event which is also a suppressing influence. United States landfall probability for 2002 is now estimated to be below the long-term average, but is less diminished than the ancitipated overall Atlantic basin activity.

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Tropical Storms