Will Christmas be white this year? The answer for most Britons is no. Maybe some sleet over northern areas and maybe some wet snow above 400m (1200ft). While chances for central Europe are increasing, ours are decreasing at the moment. The model runs were pretty robust during the recent days and it seems as if the Atlantic high pressure remains a tiny bit too close to us. If it would only shift two hundred or three hundred miles westward and a little bit northward - our chances for white Christmas would increase dramatically. Now it looks more like the dissapointing dull, wet and cold weather as martime air is moved around it. However, there is this slight very chance - and if it should happen we would get full throttle.

Actually, the question of a white Christmas is a little bit ambiguous. Does it just mean snow or sleet falling, or actually snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day? The first is what the 'bookies' are looking for, the second is what most of us would call a 'proper' white Christmas. For most of the United Kingdom this is a very rare event. Statistically, chances are about 1 in 10 for England and Wales and roughly 1 in 6 for Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, showers of wet snow or sleet on the 25th are much more likely - something around 1:5 or 1:3, respectively.

Snowy Christmases were doubtless somewhat more likely in the colder climate of the so-called 'Little Ice Age', some 150 years ago, when cold and prolonged winters were more usual than today. As a matter of fact, Ben Nevis and the Cairngorms were covered with snow patches thick enough to last throughout the year and Charles Dickens could describe Christmas past as: "The darkness and the mist had vanished with it, for it was a clear, cold winter day, with snow upon the ground." Stay tuned, we will keep on having an eye on this years Christmas weather and will keep you updated -- our inability to express it as beautiful as Mr. Dickens notwithstanding.