Issued: Monday 19th October 2009
Forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

I know that this will probably be the 'kiss of death' on the pattern for the coming winter forecast, but here's an update with latest thoughts.
This probably the 'worst case scenario', the emphasis is still for a cold and wintry December and February, January cold early and late with a milder middle perhaps?
Only time will tell!

*December 2009*
High pressure sits to the northeast with the whole UK covered in a chilly to cold south-easterly flow, this gradually switching around to a less cold southerly everywhere then to a south-westerly over the northwest during the first week, high pressure maintained to the near east or northeast ridging into England and Wales, so still settled.
Through the second week high pressure is maintained through central areas so settled but perhaps chillier again under quiet anticyclonic conditions, a change to milder weather sets in over the northern flank as a west to south-westerly affects the north, this extending south later to turn southern Britain milder too.
Third week turn all areas unsettled as low pressure takes control of the pattern, mild at first but tendency for colder weather at the end of the week, some wintry weather about in the showers as colder air floods south the flow turning northwest to northerly.
The Christmas week sees the potential for a white one over northern Britain, possibly as far south as the Midlands, milder air 'attempting' to push in, however the colder air looks like winning as the period from Boxing Day to New Year looks distinctly wintry and cold, the UK covered in a northerly to north-easterly breeze.

*January 2010*
High pressure takes hold of the pattern and settles the weather into fine but chilly anticyclonic conditions, perhaps a little less cold for a time, although soon becoming colder again in an unsettled and strengthening northerly blast.
Through the second week the pattern destabilises into a low pressure dominated pattern sitting atop the UK, unsettled and predominately chilly to cold at first, milder to the south later as the winds turns westerly.
The pattern looks likely to be an Atlantic westerly with wet and windy weather affecting all areas right through top the end of the month when it turns colder once more from the northwest to north.

*February 2010*
A cold northerly flow dominates opening to the new month, an anticyclone for a time settling the weather, although it soon becomes unsettled and cold from the north.
High pressure continues to hold just to the west, the flow maintained in a chilly northerly to north-westerly direction right through to mid-month when it becomes unsettled and colder north-easterly to easterly wintry direction.
If the pattern is correct then the remainder of the month looks set to be cold and basically wintry, little sign of any let up in the wintry theme to the coming winter?



Simon
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