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Updated Monday 2nd January. Valid Tuesday 3rd January to Wednesday 1st February 2006.

Drier couple of weeks then unsettled

Our forecast pattern has served us quite well over the previous three months, and we can still have some confidence that the general forecast remains intact.

The change to more mobile conditions has taken place as predicted, following the predicted cold snap post-Christmas. It does appear that the unsettled weather will be continuing through the early stages of 2006.

However, we are now seeing indications from the current pattern of a major and dramatic change in conditions during the middle of January.

Low pressure which will control the flow through the first week to ten 10 days of the new Year will be replaced by an increasingly strong anticyclonic tendency from the middle of January. These would bring colder, more settled weather and a risk of a significant spell of "wintry" conditions. As the high pressure builds winds will be turning into the north or northeast, bringing the colder weather.

Should this scenario develop indications are that high pressure will dominate the pattern through the remainder of the mother, although may shift westwards later to introduce a more unsettled, northerly flow