Unsettled start, then cooler and more settled.

Our confidence in staying with the basic theme of our patterns, which seem to indicate the influence of high pressure, would be somewhat more consistent than the output from the global computer models are showing, seems to have been justified.

Although high pressure has influenced the flow pattern, it has not been as dominant as the global models had indicated.

Both our patterns and global models are now "in sync", showing very mixed and changeable weather, at least in the short term. In the extended period, into the middle of October, they do once again diverge their predictions!

Our patterns indicate a major build in pressure, whereas the global models are showing somewhat more changeable and disturbed conditions, with anticyclonic influences more limited.

We will have to monitor the situation to gauge the patterns reliability in the extended period.

Updated Monday 4th October 2004 Valid Tuesday 5th October 2004 to Wednesday 3rd November 2004

Issued by Weather Consultancy Services Ltd in cooperation with WeatherOnline Ltd.

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