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Updated Sunday 8th January. Valid Monday 9th January to Wednesday 8th February 2006.

Briefly milder, then colder

When considering the possible scenarios ior our forecast pattern there has seemingly been only one option recently, that of high pressure dominating and the wind from a cold easterly quadrant.

Whilst in the short term we believe that high pressure will continue to play a significant role in determining the characteristics of the pattern close to the UK, in the longer term a more Atlantic influence seems likely.

Initially we think that high pressure may be a bit reluctant to give ground and have a hunch that it, and the colder conditions, may persist longer than the shorter term computer models are indicating. However, by the end of the coming week a change to less cold weather should be evident over the north and west, but high pressure and colder air may hang on by its finger-tips over southern Britain.

Through the short to medium term the pattern indicates that winds should be predominating from a west to northwesterly direction, occasionally turning into a much milder southwesterly, the downside being that it will often be wet and windy.

Unsettled and cool would summarise the general thoughts through to the middle and latter stages of January, thereafter we have a problem. Many of the extended computer models predict a continuation of the milder, unsettled weather; the pattern we believe will take hold certainly has more of an anticyclonic influence and colder conditions .

On balance, with many global models in conflict the only thing one can do is stick with our wider based thoughts that it will be colder once again.