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Remaining rather cool.

Previous forecasts have been hinting at a change in the forecast pattern during the middle of January, with most recent ones highlighting the possibility of a build in pressure back across the British Isles and Ireland. There would be a tendency for colder conditions to come back from the east.

Latest global forecast models do to some extent also indicate the possibility of anticyclonic tendencies increasing through the middle of January, so this in one way is reassuring, although what both our forecast pattern and the models don't agree on is where the high will be positioned.

It does seem fairly likely that the middle of January will see a return of colder weather and a rise in pressure, although according to the latest model forecasts a major cold snap, such as the one hinted at last week, seems uncertain. The problem we now face is do we "jump ship" and go down the route of a more westerly regime, or stick to our forecast of cold whether and the risk of it being in serious error.

On balance we believe that what will happen is that there will be a rise in pressure, turning it more settled for a while. It will be turning cooler, but not as bitterly cold as hinted at last week. It will then become more unsettled towards the end of January and remain cool, before high pressure builds back once more early in February. Overall, a bit of a "dog's breakfast"!

Summary:

Week 3/2006:
Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year.
Rainfall will be around 40 to 70% in the east and south, nearer 100% in western Ireland and Scotland.

Week 4/2006:
Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, although may fall below normal in the north.
Rainfall will be 100 to 120% of normal in the north and west, nearer 30% of normal through southern England and Wales.

Week 5/2006:
Temperatures will be 1 to 3C below normal for the time of year.
Rainfall will be 60 to 90% of normal.

Week 6/2006:
Temperatures will; be around 1 to 3C below normal.
Rainfall will be 60 to 90% of normal overall, lowest in the south.

Updated Monday 16th January 2006. Valid Tuesday 17th January 2006 to Wednesday 15th February 2006.

Issued by Weather Consultancy Services Ltd in cooperation with WeatherOnline Ltd.

Compare with past Januaries
Average Temperature
Average Frost Days
Average Days with Precipitation