Unsettled start, then cooler and more settled

As forecasters, the first lesson you learn is to have a very thick skin! There are times when the forecasts will go wrong, so we have to learn to take the flack which inevitably comes our way.

At times it can seem as if the weather is set against you, and at some point you have to admit defeat. This forecast is one of those occasions. That elusive area of high pressure has failed to build, and low pressure is now in control. The only words of comfort on offer to those who follow this forecast is that we only try to give a guidance as to likely conditions. Sometime the atmosphere transpires against us and so our job as forecasts then becomes one of predicting when the next major change in conditions will be.

With the global computer models continuing to predict low pressure as the dominant feature during the short term, there seems little prospect of any settled or calm conditions across the UK. In fact, quite the opposite is very likely.

Our forecast pattern had predicted a build of pressure during the coming week. This does now seem increasingly unlikely, and it may be delayed until the end of the month, and even then may only be short lived.

Thereafter, even into the middle period of November, there does seem to be a continuing "Atlantic theme", so staying unsettled, cool and typically autumnal conditions are expected.

Updated Monday 18th October 2004 Valid Tuesday 19th October 2004 to Wednesday 17th November 2004

Issued by Weather Consultancy Services Ltd in cooperation with WeatherOnline Ltd.

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