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Remaining rather cool

Whilst the global computer models, and our human forecaster pattern, have been in conflict, our forecast pattern has had some success once again in highlighting the major high pressure "blocks" of flow. However, the detail has been variable.

The pattern has consistently indicated that there would be a rise of pressure around the Christmas period and has always placed the centre of the anticyclone to the east or southeast, with a resulting southeast flow probable over the UK. The global models have at times mirrored this, whilst on other occasions have been totally opposite, there is still no consensus regarding this in the latest runs.

With the high level of uncertainty, we believe the following pattern is most probable.

High pressure is still likely to be in control over the Christmas period, although the immediate period is highly suspect. Whatever the situation, we think that high pressure over the south of the UK will decline in the interim to New Year, probably allowing conditions to become more unsettled.

On balance, the trend through January will be for unsettled conditions to continue throughout much of the month. We think that it will always be on the cool side. Low pressure may track through central areas of the UK and Ireland bringing a threat of wintry precipitation to northern Britain, colder, wetter weather to the south, occasionally mild but on the whole cool to cold.

Any settled weather may be limited to transient ridges of high pressure, although the later stages of January may see a strong anticyclonic influence as pressure rises to the east.

Updated Monday 19th December 2005. Valid Tuesday 20th December 2005 to Wednesday 18th January 2006.

Issued by Weather Consultancy Services Ltd in cooperation with WeatherOnline Ltd.

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