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A substantially colder spell.

We have highlighted in previous forecasts a concern that there would be an outbreak of very cold Continental air during the latter stages of January. This would bring a dramatic change in weather conditions over the UK and Ireland.

Previous forecast patterns had indicated that this change would take place sometime around the middle of January. However, we were perhaps a little premature, the global models too having recently been highlighting the possibility of colder conditions moving west, out of Europe during the latter stages of the month. Our current forecast pattern indicates that it will turn substantially colder through to the beginning of February with a mix of rain, sleet and increasingly snow. Southern areas becoming increasingly unsettled.

If the current scenario develops, it may be the second week of February before we are back into a cool to cold Atlantic feed of air with rain and sleet in most parts, any snow becoming confined to higher areas.

The middle of February should then see much milder conditions with the winds swinging into the southwest for a time. Pressure rising and the south becoming drier and brighter, but with the risk of widespread fog and frost.

Summary:

Week 3/2006:
Temperatures will be 1 to 3C below normal for the time of year. Rainfall will be 10 to 20% generally, although 30 to 50% on eastern coasts.

Week 4/2006:
Temperatures will be 3 to 5C below normal for the time of year. Rainfall will be 80 to 100% in the south, nearer 40 to 60% in the north.

Week 5/2006:
Temperatures will be around 1 to 3C below normal. Rainfall near 50 to 80%.

Week 6/2006:
Temperatures will be around 1C below normal for the time of year. Rainfall will be around 100 to 120% of normal

Updated Monday 23th January 2006. Valid Tuesday 24th January 2006 to Wednesday 22nd February 2006

Issued by Weather Consultancy Services Ltd in cooperation with WeatherOnline Ltd.

Compare with past Januaries
Average Temperature
Average Frost Days
Average Days with Precipitation