White Christmas? - We don"t think so, to begin with. Actually, the question of a white Christmas is a little bit ambiguous. Does it just mean snow or sleet falling, or actually snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day? The first is what the "bookies" are looking for, the second is what most of us would call a "proper" white Christmas. For most of the United Kingdom this is a very rare event. Statistically, chances are about 1 in 10 for England and Wales and roughly 1 in 6 for Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, showers of wet snow or sleet on the 25th are much more likely - something around 1:5 or 1:3, respectively.

There is a chance for a shady white Christmas this year. According to the models this weekend's general weather situation might be very similar to the situation in two weeks. A trough crossing the British Isles comes to a rest off shore southern Norway, scooping wet cold polar air across the UK. This would create cool showery weather and probably sleet and hail on higher ground. Pretty shady, indeed and Rudolph's red nose would be very likely the result of a bad cold, rather than heart-warming Christmas feelings.

Snowy Christmases were doubtless somewhat more likely in the colder climate of the so-called "Little Ice Age", some 150 years ago, when cold and prolonged winters were more usual than today. As a matter of fact, Ben Nevis and the Cairngorms were covered with snow patches thick enough to last throughout the year and Charles Dickens could describe Christmas past as: "The darkness and the mist had vanished with it, for it was a clear, cold winter day, with snow upon the ground." Stay tuned, we will keep on having an eye on this years Christmas weather and will keep you updated -- our inability to express it as beautiful as Mr. Dickens notwithstanding.