GENEVA El Nino, the weather pattern which has been blamed for bringing extreme conditions to many areas around the Pacific Ocean in recent months, should last until at least May 2003, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on Friday.

WMO said progress of the weather phenomenon beyond that period would be highly unusual based on historical records, but cautioned that it was not yet able to make an accurate forecast. The UN's weather agency said in a statement:

Beyond the timeframe of approximately May 2003, predictions are sufficiently uncertain that additional guidance cannot be provided at this time

El Nino is marked by periodic shifts in sea temperatures in the main Pacific currents, and can have an impact on climate patterns around the world. WMO warned that far western Pacific Ocean and eastern areas of the Indian Ocean could be disrupted in coming months by an unusual warm current that developed in November. Meteorologists normally associate a cold current in that region with El Nino.

Although it is rated as moderate compared to the record 1997/1998 event, the current El Nino has caused unusually dry conditions across Indonesia and Australia, as well as heavy rainstorms in the United States, Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina, according to the WMO.

In recent weeks, meteorologists have blamed El Nino for an unusually harsh winter in India and Bangladesh which has killed hundreds of people, and said it is likely to intensify a drought expected in Vietnam's impoverished central highlands over the next few months.

Copyright 2003, AFP & WeatherOnline Ltd.