Royal Ascot is decamping to York this year thanks to extensive re-development of the Berkshire racecourse. Not only are the climates of the two sites rather different, so is the geology: the sands and gravels of the �Bagshot Bedsö provide excellent drainage at Ascot, whereas the course at York is located on the muddy silt of the Ouse flood-plain.

The climatic differences are actually not quite as big as one might expect for places almost 200 miles apart. The Vale of York is the warmest part of northern England in the summer months, and the average mid-June daytime temperature here is 19.5°C, just half a degree lower than it is in east Berkshire where it stands at 20°C. Rainfall at both York and Ascot averages exactly 50mm in a typical June, although the rain in Yorkshire is rather lighter, and therefore longer-lasting, than it is in Berkshire. In fact the duration of rainfall at the northern race-course is 10-15 per cent greater than it is at Ascot.

There are two substantial differences between the two racecourses: sunshine and wind. The average June daily sunshine at York is 6.2 hours, compared with 7.0 hours at Ascot, a difference of roughly 13 per cent, while the wind at York is, on average, 50 per cent stronger than it is at Ascot.

Of course, the actual weather experienced next week may differ greatly from what the historical averages tell us. At this range it is unwise to attempt to predict the weather in much detail, or with much confidence. For what it is worth, though, the latest computer forecast suggests a cool and unsettled first half of next week with outbreaks of rain in most parts of the country, giving way to drier and brighter and warmer conditions for a day or two, at least in the eastern half of England, after mid-week.

© Philip Eden