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Issued: 0730 Wednesday August 2005
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Where will the rain be on Friday?

My forecasting problem is continuing this morning. I'm looking at charts from various meteorological centres around the World, each giving a slightly different outcome to the weather forecast on Friday. So what is the problem?

Well, a shallow area of low pressure is forecast to be moving across the south of Ireland, Wales and somewhere through southern England. It is only a small feature, but may be quite active and could bring heavy bursts of rain.

The UK Met. Office, Canadian Met Agency and Germany Weather Service prefer to bring the low across central Ireland, Wales and the Midlands, leaving East Anglia in the afternoon. This would bring heavy bursts of rain with it to all of these areas.

The American Weather Service prefer to take the low further south of Ireland, across southwest Wales and southwest England. This would leave most of the Midlands and East Anglia, as well as north Wales dry, with the heaviest rain over southwest England.

So, enough of the excuses, what's my answer? At the moment, I'm favouring a "half-way" approach. This would bring rain to much of Central and southern Ireland, Wales, the Midlands and southern England. The heaviest of the rain over the south of Ireland, southern Wales, southwest and central southern England, with only light rain in the southeast and through East Anglia.

I'm going to be watching this one closely, so the forecast may change tomorrow. For now I need a lie down in a darkened room :)

I'll have more for you in the morning.
Simon