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Issued: 0930 Monday 12th December 2005
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Chance of Cold this Weekend

It's been an interesting few days for me as updates for the Christmas Holiday period filter through from national weather services around the World. And it is becoming clearer, day-by-day, that the models are confused about the details of likely conditions.

I always like to stick to more traditional forecast methods anyway; looking at how patterns in the weather evolve and the likely consequences of changes in upper air patterns in the Pacific then comparing them to weather patterns over the UK and Europe.

Using these methods I reckon that we could see a blast of colder air coming through the UK and Ireland towards the back end of this week. It may be that the west of Ireland escapes the worst of it, but I suspect that parts of Scotland and the east coasts of England may well see some of the white stuff. There is a chance too that snow may fall in the Midlands and north Wales as well as northwest England for a time.

This isn't backed up by the computer models today (although it was on Sunday) and so to some extent treat this as more of a "heads-up" than a true forecast. Either way, best to be prepared for a colder weekend, with a risk of it becoming very cold. I'll keep you updated!

Whatever the weather, keep the sun shining!
Simon