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Issued: 0930 Tuesday 13th December 2005
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Throwing me off the Cold Scent...

That's exactly what the weather seems to be doing to me this morning. The forecast models are changing with every run and giving a very confused signal as to what they think will happen. So, it's back to the old fashioned forecast techniques for me!

Just looking at the high pressure west of the UK I'm expecting this to become stronger during the coming days. This is likely to allow a cold blast of northerly winds to come through the UK and Ireland during the course of the weekend, although how cold this air will be is unsure just now. I suspect the really cold air will pass over northern Scotland and slip into the North Sea, with the rest of the UK and Ireland, although chilly, perhaps not so cold.

This takes us into the pre-Christmas week, and I am tempted just to "feel" the weather to see where it will go.

At the moment I suspect that we may see a temporary return to milder weather on Monday or Tuesday, but I suspect that this won't last long. I think that low pressure will pass southeast through the UK and Ireland bringing strong winds, rain and sleet perhaps into Christmas Eve. By Christmas Day the winds may move into the east or southeast, as hinted in our 30 day forecasts, bringing colder weather for the Christmas period. Will it snow? Well, I'll try to update you tomorrow.

Whatever the weather, keep the sun shining!
Simon