Visit www.weatheronline.co.uk - the UK's most comprehensive internet weather - talk live to our forecasters for the latest forecast and weather news. Call 090 666 444 80 (£1.50p/min)

Issued: 0930 Wednesday 14th December 2005
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

I think cold....but then again.....

I've gone cross-eyed looking at all of these charts, and so I've made a decision. Don't try and change my mind! I'm throwing the GFS on the scrap-heap...well for now at least. It hasn't performed well over the past few days, and so on this performance I can't trust it. It probably confuses things too much, although I should say, this won't be a permanent break up as the GFS model did perform tremendously in the cold weather of late November.

So, what am I using in it's place? Well, a mixture of intuition; looking at previous situation and trying to match these to current happenings. Secondly I'm going to using the Canadian GEM model which is available out to 10 days ahead once a day.

On this basis I'm happy to think of Christmas as being mostly dry with high pressure dominating the UK. Now, this presents a potential problem as wind direction will be critical to the forecast success. For now I'm sticking with my 30 day forecast of a chilly east to southeast wind.

I'll need to update this though so do check back tomorrow.

Whatever the weather, keep the sun shining!
Simon