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Issued: 0730hrs Monday 23rd January 2006
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Models Unsure as Cold Digs In

In the words of ELO, "Confusion" reigns over the charts this morning.

Consecutive runs of the computer models are varying, some bringing in cold air, other not. So why am I still not sure about how cold it might get?

The reason is to do with a ridge of high pressure building north of the UK. Low pressure over the Poles was forecast to move away, allowing the ridge to build north and cold air to dig south into North America. This would have build high pressure north of the UK, low pressure to the south and, hey presto!, an easterly wind.

Not now though, for the past few runs of the model low pressure has been holding over the pole, prevent the ridge from building. This means that although pressure remains generally high over the UK, it would be staying fairly mild.

So, what do I make of it? Well, I can't see at the moment how the ridge is going to be building north. Therefore, I'm leaning towards the less cold scenario at the moment. This would mean that much of the UK and Ireland would be staying dry, and although chilly, it won't be very cold. Things could change and of course I'll keep you updated.

I'll have more for you tomorrow. Keep the sun shining!


Simon