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Issued: 0630hrs Tuesday 24th January 2006
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Model Differences Still Troubling Minds

I don't know...I just don't know! :)

Again this morning the output from computer models is providing conflicting ideas as t how the weather pattern will be developing during the coming days. Yes, the weather is likely to turn colder, and it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if it turned very cold for England and Wales for a brief time, especially through Friday and the weekend.

It's what happens later that is really causing most of my troubles. It's tempting to turn to the wider picture to gain an idea as to what might happen, and for this I'm looking at the sea surface temperature anomaly charts. Now, don't get frightened, these charts just tell me where sea water around the earth is above or below normal.

After significant anomalies through the Atlantic of the past few months, temperatures seem to be settling back to normal. This is hinting to me that given favourable conditions, the weather may like to get itself back into a normal westerly airflow.

So, I think I'm tempted to lean towards the idea of a brief colder snap perhaps for 5 to 7 days for most of the UK and Ireland. This is likely to be eroded slowly from the north with a more westerly flow then forming in the middle to later parts of next week.

I'll have more for you tomorrow. Keep the sun shining!


Simon