Forecast valid for Sunday 11/08/02 to Saturday 17/08/02 TOI Friday 09/08/02 1800 BST. Based on MRF, AVN, UKMO, and ENS labelled model.

Basic idea is for low pressure to dominate the north and west of the British Isles, while a ridge of high pressure, courtesy of the Azores high will affect the south and east.

Confidence for a bright and warm start of the week for much of England is good (80%). The south-east has even a good chance for 3 or 4 consecutive dry days from Monday to Wednesday/Thursday. However Ireland and the north-western UK will see a wet and dull start of the week.

Sunday A slow moving low north of Scotland sends an occulding front with light rain, heavy only along western slopes, followed by a brighter interlude. However, this front is a weakening feature and thus most of the south and east will stay dry with a mixture of clouds and sunny spells.

Monday and Tuesday high pressure rules the south and there is still a moderate to good confidence for becoming increasingly warm with sunshine and temperatures well above the mid-twenties, especially south of a line Liverpool to York. Not so for Ireland and the northern UK, where low cloud and occasional light rain will spoil the picture, especially around coasts. There is a certain chance for the sun to burn the low stratus clouds away from inland areas, though. Much cooler here, but SE Ireland might still reach the lower 20ies. And - there will be always a risk for a showery outbreak along the north-west vs south-east air-mass boundary at times.

Wednesday and Thursday have moderate confidence for ongoing sunshine and becoming very warm, but also increasingly humid for the south-east, cooler elsewhere. Thursday might see friendly weather for all areas. Midland areas have a risk for thunder developing from the west.

Friday conditions are of poor confidence at the moment, but there seems to be a certain risk for thunderstorms and termination of this short and welcomed warm period.