Forecast valid for Sunday 25/08/02 to Saturday 31/08/02 TOI Friday 23/08/02 1800 BST. Based on MRF, AVN, UKMO, and ENS labelled model.

Basic idea is for a high pressure ridge to develop acoss the British Isles, merging with high pressure across Scandinavia. A good deal of warm sunshine at the beginning of the week for much of England and Wales, more cloud and rain for northwestern areas.

Confidence is high (80%) for a pleasant start of the week for much of England. A relatively dry mix of clouds and sunny spells for much of Ireland throughout the week, if rain - than confined to northwestern Ireland. Scotland more clouds and some general rain, brightening towards mid-week. Confidence becomes very poor from Thursday on. Probably a continuing of the relatively settled and mostly dry conditions to the end of the week.

Sunday Mostly dry with clouds and sunny spells for much of Ireland and the northern UK , while light rain is to enter Northern Ireland and western Scotland later. Showers, maybe heavy towards afternoon, will be confined to central England areas and to the far south. Some to persist until Monday morning, otherwise drying and getting brighter. Warm only across the far south-east, temperatures pretty average elsewhere.

Monday to Wednesday Some residual rain and showers in the far south. Otherwise dry with many cloud for most of the UK, but gradually brightening leading to a fine Tuesday with a good deal of sunshine for England and Wales. More clouds towards the north and west and maybe overcast and some light rain for much of Scotland. Wednesday dry and fine for most. Still pleasantly warm for much of Ireland and England. Early fog locally and low cloud might linger a while at places. Confidence for this scenario is still moderate to good.

Towards the end of the week confidence becomes very poor. It seems as if the high pressure ridge will hold up against the N Atlantic low pressure. Although some dull, windy and wet weather for the northwestern UK seems likely, while all other parts should go on with the fine and mostly dry mix of sun and clouds.