General situation: With more than two weeks to go confidence in this Christmas weather forecast is still extremely low, only slightly better than 50% or 55%. However, confidence is moderately good that weather will be turning more unsettled and, yes, gradually colder from next mid-week on.

Unfortunately it might not turn cold enough to produce snow but on higher ground towards north which could be lying on Christmas Day. General airflow pattern around the 23rd to 25th seem to be more westerly to northwesterly and there is no sign for a snow laden northeasterly situation at the moment. However, this might still change - nothing is lost yet.

Christmas Eve: confidence is moderate to low that there will be no snow lying, beside some drift in gullies on very high grounds, or snow falling. England and Wales might see some colder weather but with rather a cold than a wintry shower. Scotland and especially the Northwest will be windier and probably wetter with some wintry showers on higher grounds.

Christmas Day: Pretty much the same, maybe somewhat drier overall.

Issued Thursday, 9th Dec, 5:30 pm. Updated regularly.