General situation: With more than two weeks to go confidence in this Christmas weather forecast is still extremely low, only slightly better than 50% or 55%. However, confidence is moderately good that weather will be turning more unsettled wet and, yes, gradually colder from next mid-week on which might last until Christmas.

Around the 17th there might be a chance for some good wintry showers for many and some snow on higher grounds towards north which could still be lying on Christmas Day. General airflow pattern around the 23rd to 25th seem to be more northwesterly to westerly which might produce - given enough cold upper air - wintry showers on higher grounds. However, there is no sign for a snow laden northeasterly situation at the moment. This might still change - nothing is lost yet.

Christmas Eve: confidence is moderate to low that there will be no snow lying, beside some left-over drift in gullies on very high grounds, or snow falling. England and Wales might see some colder weather but with rather a cold wet than a wintry shower. Scotland and especially the Northwest will be windier and probably wettest.

Christmas Day: Not much of a change. Pretty much the same as the 24th, maybe a bit cooler.

Issued Friday, 10th Dec, 4:00 pm. Updated regularly.