Will we have snow on Christmas? This is maybe the most popular question for meteorologists around this time of the year. But forecasting Christmas Day weather more than 5 to 10 days ahead is an extremely uncertain business even with the help of the latest numerical weather models interpreted by well experienced forecasters. And as every year there will be always someone (often not even a trained meteorologist) who claims to know better but is notoriously failing to show a scientific reasoning for his or her method.

The next nearest approach is to compare the long-term model output (up to 30 days) with the regional climatology which is the meteorological translation of a science called statistics. Based on this statistical chances for a white Christmas in the UK are about 1:10 (10 percent) for England and Wales and about 1:6 (roughly 20 percent) for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Chances are generally better on higher ground and worse near low lying coastlands. However, lets have a look at the past years.

1990: A mainly green and mild Christmas Day. Some wintry showers about Scotland and northern England.

1991 and 1992: NIL.

1993: YUP. A reasonable event for most rural areas. Some larger urban areas missed out. However, snow from the southeast to NE Scotland. Best across Northern Ireland. Reasonable over Wales and the Midlands.

1994: NIL.

1995: YUP. A good event for the north. Plenty of snow lying and falling from Yorkshire to Scotland, patchy lying and new snow for Northern Ireland. However, the south missed out again.

1996: NIL. Bookies: YUP. Although some light snow and individual snow grains were observed, snow was not lying in populated areas.

1997 and 1998: NIL

1999: NIL. Bookies: YUP. No real snow by definition. Wintry showers and a mixture of soft hail or sleet. Scotland had some overnight snow later. Only higher grounds in Northern Ireland had a snow cover. All in all very poor.

2000: NIL for much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Some light snow or sleet in the West, but no snow cover. Some snow across northern England, especially the Pennines and a reasonable event for Scotland with a significant snow cover.

2001: NIL for the south. However there were snowy rain showers during afternoon. YUP for northern England. NE Scotland had a thin snow cover, snow showers elsewhere. Only Northern Ireland had a true white Christmas.

2002 and 2003: NIL, NIL, NIL, in fact totally disappointing. Mild or light rains and drizzle. Not even a flake on higher ground.

Most of the info has been taken from Martin Rowleys excellent and comprehensive "Snow at Christmas in the UK" site.

Related WeatherOnline links:

Is it currently snowing in the UK?
Snow, showers or rain? Check our unique 'kind of precipitation' maps
Missing snow in England? What about Europe
Historic snow-depths data from the UK
To ski or not to ski? Up-to-date snow depth and resort info