Will 2002 be a white Christmas? - Actually, the question of a white Christmas is a little bit ambiguous. Does it just mean snow or sleet falling, or actually snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day? The first is what the 'bookies' are looking for, the second is what most of us would call a 'proper' white Christmas. For most of the United Kingdom this is a very rare event. Statistically, chances are about 1 in 10 for England and Wales and roughly 1 in 6 for Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, showers of wet snow or sleet on the 25th are much more likely - something around 1:5 or 1:3, respectively.

Snowy Christmases were doubtless somewhat more likely in the colder climate of the so-called 'Little Ice Age', some 150 years ago, when cold and prolonged winters were more usual than today. As a matter of fact, Ben Nevis and the Cairngorms were covered with snow patches thick enough to last throughout the year and Charles Dickens could describe Christmas past as: "The darkness and the mist had vanished with it, for it was a clear, cold winter day, with snow upon the ground." Stay tuned, we will keep on having an eye on this years Christmas weather and will keep you updated -- our inability to express it as beautiful as Mr. Dickens notwithstanding. And now let's start with the first issue of WeatherOnline's:

British Isles White Christmas Forecast
TOI - December 5th 2002

Confidence is still pretty low (!), but it seems as if the weekend prior to Christmas is likely to be rather settled and chilly, with milder air penetrating from the west around Christmas Day. This increases the chance for snow to 20% for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, but decreases it for the south down to 5 to 10%.

However, after a bright spell the following cold front could bring showers, which might turn out snowy or sleety after dark almost everywhere. Just keep this in mind for the bookies.

Click here to read a year to year summary of White X-mas events in the United Kingdom since 1990

Related WeatherOnline links:

Is it currently snowing in the UK?
Snow, showers or rain? Check the 'kind of precipitation' maps
Missing snow in England? What about Europe
Historic snow-depths data from the UK
To ski or not to ski? Up-to-date snow depth and resort info